Last week, we looked at Joe Biden’s latest approval ratings, which turned out to be even more dreadful than the previous month’s results. Biden was down across the board, but he took an unusually larger hit in approval of his handling of climate issues, traditionally one of his stronger points. At the New York Sun, Russell Payne examines these numbers and arrives at one likely explanation for the drop and a more remarkable potential explanation as to how and why this trend is showing up. The drop in approval isn’t simply the result of external forces beyond Biden’s control or even the poor results his policies have produced. Payne suggests that Uncle Joe is engaged in an intentional tradeoff in anticipation of a tough general election in 2024. In other words, he could be knowingly pushing down his own approval numbers for a reason. Does that sound crazy? Of course it does. But bear with me for a moment and it might make more sense.
An associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Miles Coleman, told the Sun that he suspects “you’re seeing some dissatisfaction — especially over issues like oil drilling — from Democrats and younger voters who are likely going to end up voting for him anyway.”
Mr. Coleman said that Mr. Biden’s approval of the Willow Oil Project, which is popular with Alaskans of both parties, could cost him among his base in the short term but help him in Alaska in the long run…
“I can see the Biden team trying to court independent voters — and even soft Republicans — while hoping that the threat of Trump or DeSantis shores up his liberal flank in a general election,” Mr. Coleman said.
So you can see where Payne is going with this theory. He believes that Biden made some recent moves toward the middle (approving the Willow Oil Project, vetoing the criminal justice reform bill in D.C., and some mild restrictions on migrants at the southern border) for a reason. He’s willing to trade off some approval points on the far left because those people will vote for him anyway because he’s not a Republican. But he might attract some general election support from moderates and possibly some Republicans who are not enamored of whoever the GOP nominee turns out to be.
Personally, I think Mr. Payne is giving Joe Biden credit for a lot more strategic thinking and mental calculations than may be merited at this point. But whether it’s Biden himself or whoever is handling his decisions these days, it’s an interesting possibility. Honestly, given the current condition of the country after two years under Biden, I don’t know how anyone would vote for him, but I also thought he would lose badly in 2020, so what do I know?
With all of that said, however, when I heard Payne suggesting that Biden could be intentionally driving down his numbers, a different theory sprang to mind. Biden and his team could be watching all of these recent developments and having second thoughts about a reelection bid. Joe might be thinking, “hey, I might actually lose.” Losing the primary would be a massive embarrassment and an obvious rejection by his own party. Losing the general election to Trump (were he to be the eventual nominee) would potentially be even more humiliating, having beaten him once before. And it would then leave Joe Biden as the only president to serve only one term in more than thirty years, an honor that Trump currently holds.
A low enough approval rating that makes reelection look less likely could be the perfect excuse to change his mind. He could tell his party that he needs to forego another run “for the good of the progressive cause” and allow someone more electable to take the stage. Then he could head back to his mansions in Delaware and hope that the Department of Justice forgets about any investigations into where his son came up with all of that Chinese and Ukrainian cash.
Is that idea really any crazier than the one Russell Payne came up with? I’d argue that it’s not. Though the most likely reality remains that Biden’s numbers are tanking because he’s driven the country into a ditch in nearly every policy area, both foreign and domestic.
