The bad news keeps piling up for Kamala Harris. Riding a wave of astroturfed enthusiasm in August, there was some thought the vice president could build a comfortable lead against Donald Trump. That hope is now a distant memory, and the latest polling data is an outright disaster for Harris.
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For the entire cycle, her best poll has been ABC News/Ipsos, which has consistently shown her with around a six-point lead against Trump. That margin is now down to two points.
ALSO SEE: Trump Jumps Four Points in Yahoo/YouGov Poll Since Vance-Walz Debate
#NEW NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 50% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 48%Last poll: Harris+6
ABC & Ipsos | Oct. 4-8 | N=1,714LV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 13, 2024
It’d be one thing if Rasmussen, Emerson, or even Times/Sienna showed a two-point race. For this specific poll to show that is an earthquake, given how heavily it has favored Harris since she announced. A four-point swing toward Trump simply can’t be ignored. For all the anecdotal evidence that the vice president has had a really bad month, this puts data to that idea.
That’s not the only indicator, though. The new NBC News poll, which has also leaned heavily toward Harris throughout the cycle, shows the race tied. That’s a five-point swing toward the former president in the last month.
#NEW NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (=)
🔵 Harris: 48%Last poll: Harris+5
NBC | Oct. 4-8
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 13, 2024
The other numbers in the poll aren’t any better for Harris. Her favorable rating has fully collapsed.
NBC Poll: Impression of Candidates
Trump
Positive 43%
Negative 51%Harris
Positive 43%
Negative 49%
—-
Last month:
Trump
Positive 40%
Negative 53%Harris
Positive 48%
Negative 45%— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 13, 2024
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Not only has Harris dropped significantly, wiping out all the “joy” her campaign was previously feeling, but Trump saw a rise in how voters perceive him. That is awful news for the vice president with only three weeks to go until election day.
I’m not going to speak too soon because things could change. The popular vote is also simply an indicator to suggest voter trends. With that said, it’s getting harder and harder to imagine an event that changes the current status quo. What are they going to do? Charge Trump with a crime and convict him? That’s already been done, and no one cares. Harris is also becoming baked into the political cake. What’s she going do to change perceptions with voters already voting?
If this is going to be the status quo until the final bell, and it looks like it will be, then Trump has to be the favorite to win the election. There’s no other way to describe the situation.
