Share Tweet By Billy Hallowell Editor
September 9, 2024
With the race for the White House heading into its final stretch, who currently has the upper hand: former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris?
According to the most recent polls, it’s complicated.
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The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, which takes most recent polls into account and provides an average of all findings, has Harris up 1.4 percentage points.
Trump, the Republican candidate, is at 46.7% and Harris, the Democratic contender, clocks in at 48.1%.
The candidates are neck and neck, with Trump seemingly ticking back up slightly in at least one recent poll after Harris appeared to enjoy a few weeks of somewhat of an upper hand.
At this point, it’s perhaps most helpful to look back at what was unfolding in the polls during the 2020 and 2016 election cycles. Trump faced off against President Joe Biden in the former and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the latter cycle.
For comparative purposes, on Sept. 8, 2020, Biden was up 7.1% over Trump, with Clinton up 2.8% on the same day in 2016. Harris has a much smaller average polling advantage against Trump right now with just 1.4% to spare.
The most recent individual poll which is included in the RCP average is from The New York Times/Siena College, a survey Newsweek noted was ranked the most accurate poll by FiveThirtyEight.
In that survey, Trump came in at 48%, with Harris at 47%, though the margin of error is 2.8 percentage points. This means the “race appears to be a statistical tie,” Newsweek reported.
These statistics show a close presidential battle one that could easily be swayed by major events or campaign happenings.
The next affair that could have a profound impact is Tuesday’s much-anticipated debate between Trump and Harris, the first general-election showdown between the two major party candidates.
Here’s why the debate matters: a CBS News/YouGov poll shows likely voters are more likely to say they need to know more about Harris (28%) than Trump (9%). This means Harris has an opportunity to showcase her policy proposals and what she believes to help fill that void.
Trump, too, has a chance to clarify his own perspectives, though more people seemingly express knowing where he stands on the issues.
The New York Times/Siena College poll yielded another finding that adds further context to this dynamic. The majority of voters said Trump isn’t “too far” to the left or right on key issues, and one-third said he’s “too conservative.” But, for Harris, 44% said she’s “too liberal or progressive,” with 42% saying she’s not too far in either direction, Fox News reported.
With these statistics in mind, Tuesday’s debate is a high-stakes event that could educate voters and sway polls toward or away from one of the candidates, depending on what unfolds.
The first debate of this cycle proved consequential. Trump debated Biden in June, with Biden’s less-than-stellar performance leading the outgoing president to exit the race and endorse Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Only time will tell what happens Tuesday, but the current polls show a tight race with no clear winner.
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