Here’s a political prediction I think you can take to the bank: the candidate who prevails among independent voters in November 2024 will win the presidential election. In the latest (2023) Gallup telephone survey data of partisan identification, the percentage of adult respondents identifying as Democrats has fallen to a new low of 27 percent — tied with the percentage of adults identifying as Republican. Independents rule (“independents continue to constitute the largest political bloc in the U.S., with an average of 43% of U.S. adults identifying this way in 2023, tying the record high from 2014”).
Gallup reports the results of its latest survey here. Axios does its thing with the results here (graphic below). In Gallup’s current results, slightly more independents leaned Republican than Democrat. If you can project how the candidates will stand with independent voters in November 2024, you may want to place your bets now.
