Former President Donald Trump is now beating Vice President Kamala Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for the first time.
Trump has taken a massive ten-point lead over Harris, with a 52 percent chance of winning to her 42 percent.
The Hill reports:
Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning at approximately 54 to 56 percent, with Trump’s chances at approximately 44 to 46 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.
On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage on Oct. 20.
The shift in election forecast coincides with the Republican candidate’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two battleground states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already had a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Harris is still leading in Pennsylvania, but Trump and his allies are campaigning hard in the swing state for the final weeks of the election season.
“Nonetheless, the race remains a toss-up, according to the election forecast, since the polling in all seven states remains within the margin of error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could shift the results in either direction,” The Hill report adds.
As of Sunday, neither candidate led enough in swing states to have a clear path to 270 electoral votes.
